MLB Recap · April 3, 2026

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

NYM10
Final
SF3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYM20030030210150
SF000002010350

The Story

The New York Mets rolled to a 10-3 victory over the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on April 3, 2026, handing the home side a decisive loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected in full — San Francisco entered with a 54% pre-game win probability and finished at 0%. New York posted runs in four separate innings, collecting 15 hits against a Giants staff that could not contain the Mets lineup across the final third of the game.

The turning point arrived in the top of the fourth inning, when Marcus Semien connected on a home run off Tyler Mahle that shifted win probability 13.0 percentage points in New York's favor. That swing, combined with the broader three-run frame, effectively broke open what had been a scoreless game. Semien finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by WPA, posting a plus-12.6% mark and a RE24 of plus-2.2. Francisco Alvarez added a home run of his own in the top of the seventh off JT Brubaker, a plus-6.1% swing that extended the lead to a margin the Giants had no realistic path to overcoming, with Alvarez finishing at plus-10.6% WPA. Willy Adames contributed a key double in the bottom of the sixth that registered a plus-10.0% swing for San Francisco, but that rally stalled when Rafael Devers struck out against Brooks Raley, a minus-7.4% shift that effectively ended the Giants' most credible threat of the evening.

On the mound, Nolan McLean was New York's most valuable arm by WPA, finishing at plus-14.3%, while Brooks Raley added plus-6.7% largely on the strength of that pivotal Devers strikeout. San Francisco managed only five hits and could not string together enough sustained offense to trouble a Mets club that controlled the game from the fourth inning onward.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYM bats firstFinalSF win %NYM win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Marcus Semien Home Run
Top 4th · off Tyler Mahle
+13.0%
Willy Adames Double
Bot 6th · off Nolan McLean
+10.0%
Rafael Devers Strikeout
Bot 6th · off Brooks Raley
-7.4%
Heliot Ramos Groundout
Bot 2nd · off Nolan McLean
-6.8%
Francisco Alvarez Home Run
Top 7th · off JT Brubaker
+6.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Marcus Semien+12.6%+2.2 RE24
Francisco Alvarez+10.6%+1.2 RE24
Willy Adames+7.9%+1.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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