MLB Recap · April 1, 2026

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

BOS4
Final
HOU6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS110000011472
HOU20003010-680

The Story

The Houston Astros defeated the Boston Red Sox 6-4 on April 1, 2026, at Daikin Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Houston's win probability moving from 54 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by the final out. Houston scored in six of nine innings, building their lead methodically before delivering the decisive blow in the fifth.

The game turned decisively in the bottom of the fifth inning when Carlos Correa hit a home run off Boston starter Garrett Crochet, a swing that shifted the DiamondIQ model's win probability by plus 30.0 percent in Houston's favor and effectively put the game out of reach. Correa's afternoon was a study in contrasts — he had wiped out a Houston opportunity earlier by grounding into a double play in the third inning, a play that cost the Astros 10.2 percentage points of win probability, also against Crochet. Those two plate appearances alone defined the game's arc. Yordan Alvarez also contributed meaningfully, finishing second among batters with plus 9.1 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24, while Connor Wong was Boston's lone bright spot at the plate, posting plus 5.0 percent WPA and plus 0.9 RE24.

On the mound, Houston right-hander Mike Burrows was the pitching standout of the game, leading all pitchers with plus 12.9 percent WPA. Bryan King and AJ Blubaugh each added plus 5.0 percent WPA out of the bullpen as Houston's staff limited Boston to seven hits and committed no errors. The Red Sox finished with two errors of their own and could not overcome a deficit that Correa's fifth-inning blast made permanent. Correa led all players with a final WPA of plus 22.1 percent and plus 2.3 RE24.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalHOU win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Carlos Correa Home Run
Bot 5th · off Garrett Crochet
+30.0%
Carlos Correa Grounded Into DP
Bot 3rd · off Garrett Crochet
-10.2%
Isaac Paredes Strikeout
Bot 5th · off Garrett Crochet
-5.3%
Isaac Paredes Hit By Pitch
Bot 3rd · off Garrett Crochet
+5.3%
Jarren Duran Flyout
Top 4th · off Mike Burrows
-4.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Carlos Correa+22.1%+2.3 RE24
Yordan Alvarez+9.1%+1.0 RE24
Connor Wong+5.0%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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