The St. Louis Cardinals walked off the New York Mets 2-1 in eleven innings on April 1, 2026, at Busch Stadium, with Masyn Winn delivering the decisive blow in the bottom of the eleventh to end a tightly contested game that had been scoreless through five frames. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving St. Louis a 54 percent win probability, a figure that climbed steadily through a pitching-dominated contest before reaching 100 percent on Winn's game-ending single off Tobias Myers, a swing that added 35.9 percent to St. Louis's win probability and stood as the most impactful plate appearance of the night.
The game's tension was concentrated in the ninth and eleventh innings. Jorge Polanco gave the Mets life in the top of the ninth with a double off Riley O'Brien that added 17.5 percent to New York's win probability, but Marcus Semien stranded that threat with a strikeout that swung the needle 12.8 percent back toward St. Louis. The Mets eventually pushed across a run to tie, but the eleventh inning unraveled quickly when Brett Baty grounded into a forceout off Gordon Graceffo, costing New York 19.2 percent in win probability. Bo Bichette's subsequent groundout, while producing a 16.4 percent swing in St. Louis's favor by advancing the ghost runner into scoring position, set the table for Winn's walk-off.
Winn finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 33.6 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.4, while Bichette contributed plus 14.1 percent WPA despite his modest RE24 of plus 0.3. On the mound, Gordon Graceffo led all pitchers with plus 19.5 percent WPA, followed closely by JoJo Romero at plus 18.1 percent and Freddy Peralta at plus 17.7 percent, a trio that collectively preserved the Cardinals' narrow margin through the game's most precarious moments.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.