The New York Yankees shut out the Seattle Mariners 5-0 at T-Mobile Park on March 31, 2026, handing the home side a complete reversal of the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate, which had placed Seattle's win probability at 54% before first pitch. The Yankees scored twice in the first inning and added three more in the sixth to account for all their offense, while Seattle managed just four hits and committed one error against a New York pitching staff that was largely untouched. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Seattle win fell to 0% by game's end, a swing driven by sustained failures in key spots for the Mariners.
The sixth inning was the game's decisive sequence, with Giancarlo Stanton delivering a double off Logan Gilbert that registered the single biggest win-probability swing of the night at plus 9.2 percentage points. Seattle's own missed opportunities contributed substantially to their demise, as Victor Robles' flyout in the second inning cost the Mariners 6.8 percentage points of win probability, and Josh Naylor's strikeout in the first against Max Fried removed another 6.3 points. Stanton also grounded into a double play in the fourth, costing New York 6.0 points, while Aaron Judge grounded into a double play in the third for a loss of 5.9 points, meaning both clubs squandered chances before New York's sixth-inning surge settled matters.
Among position players, Trent Grisham led all batters with a WPA of plus 8.1 and an RE24 of plus 0.6, followed by Jazz Chisholm Jr. at plus 6.5 and Cody Bellinger at plus 5.1. The dominant individual performance of the night, however, belonged to Max Fried on the mound, whose plus 38.7 WPA towered over every other contributor in the game. Brent Headrick and Casey Legumina combined for negligible impact in relief, finishing at 0.0 and minus 0.1 respectively, as Fried's performance required little supplementation. The DiamondIQ model's lean entering the game had favored Seattle, but Fried and the Yankees' sixth-inning production made that projection obsolete well before the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.