The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-1 at Rogers Centre on March 31, 2026, handing Colorado a shutout through four innings before pulling away decisively in the middle frames. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Toronto, and that figure climbed steadily to 100 percent by the final out. Toronto scattered 14 hits against no errors, while Colorado managed 7 hits of their own in a largely one-sided affair.
The game's turning point arrived in the fifth inning, when Toronto broke the scoreless tie against Jaden Hill. Jesús Sánchez delivered a single that shifted win probability 9.1 percent in Toronto's favor, and a subsequent George Springer walk off Juan Mejia added another 9.0 percent swing, applying sustained pressure that produced two Blue Jays runs. Colorado's best chance to respond was quickly erased in the top of the sixth, when Kyle Karros grounded into a double play off Max Scherzer, a play that cost the Rockies 9.5 percent in win probability and effectively neutralized any momentum they had built. Hunter Goodman then answered with a solo home run off Scherzer in the top of the sixth to account for Colorado's lone run, a swing worth plus 11.8 percent from Colorado's perspective. Toronto countered emphatically in the seventh, with Kazuma Okamoto delivering a single off Zach Agnos that added 11.1 percent to Toronto's probability and capped a three-run frame.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led all players by WPA, contributing plus 13.6 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.7, making him the game's most impactful offensive presence. Goodman's home run gave him a plus 9.8 percent WPA on the day despite the loss, and Springer finished at plus 8.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.8. On the mound, Max Scherzer was the dominant force, posting a plus 15.4 percent WPA for Toronto, suppressing Colorado's lineup while inducing the critical Karros double play. Ryan Feltner added plus 12.0 percent in WPA support, and Braydon Fisher contributed plus 7.4 percent, giving Toronto a deep and efficient pitching effort that the DiamondIQ model ultimately reflected in a perfect closing probability.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.