MLB Recap · March 30, 2026

Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

DET6
Final
AZ9

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
DET0000006006102
AZ23003010-9110

The Story

The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the Detroit Tigers a 9-6 defeat at Chase Field on March 30, 2026, pulling away early and holding firm despite a late Detroit charge. The DiamondIQ model opened with Arizona as a modest favorite at 54% pre-game home win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting how thoroughly the Diamondbacks controlled the outcome.

Arizona built its cushion quickly, scoring two in the first inning and three more in the second. The defining moment of that second-inning burst came when Corbin Carroll connected on a home run off Justin Verlander, a swing that added 13.7% to Arizona's win probability and set the tone for the evening. Later in that same frame, Geraldo Perdomo's lineout, while an out in the box score, registered a +9.0% WPA contribution in the context of the rally's construction. The Diamondbacks added three more runs in the fifth, pushing their lead to 8-0 and effectively quieting any early Detroit response. On the mound, starter Michael Soroka was the game's most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a +15.0% WPA, while Juan Morillo contributed +12.2% out of the bullpen, highlighted by a Parker Meadows groundout in the seventh that deflated Detroit's momentum at -12.2% WPA.

Detroit's only meaningful threat materialized in the seventh inning, when the Tigers pushed across six runs to narrow the deficit to 8-6. Spencer Torkelson's double off Ryan Thompson registered a +9.6% WPA, the largest positive swing of the inning for Detroit. However, Ildemaro Vargas answered immediately with a home run off Brant Hurter in the bottom half, a +8.8% swing that restored Arizona's comfortable cushion and ended any realistic Detroit comeback. Carroll finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's numbers, posting a combined +16.4% WPA and +3.7 RE24, while Taylor Clarke closed out the Diamondbacks' bullpen effort with a +4.5% WPA contribution to secure the win.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025DET bats firstFinalAZ win %DET win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Corbin Carroll Home Run
Bot 2nd · off Justin Verlander
+13.7%
Parker Meadows Groundout
Top 7th · off Juan Morillo
-12.2%
Top 7th · off Ryan Thompson
+9.6%
Geraldo Perdomo Lineout
Bot 2nd · off Justin Verlander
+9.0%
Ildemaro Vargas Home Run
Bot 7th · off Brant Hurter
+8.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Corbin Carroll+16.4%+3.7 RE24
Geraldo Perdomo+9.5%-0.5 RE24
Ildemaro Vargas+9.2%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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