Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds opened their 2026 home slate with a 3-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox at Great American Ball Park on March 29, taking a game the DiamondIQ model had estimated as nearly a coin flip at 54 percent in favor of the home side before first pitch. Boston struck first, as Wilyer Abreu's fourth-inning home run off Rhett Lowder gave the Red Sox a 2-0 lead and swung win probability 19.5 points in Boston's favor. Cincinnati answered in the sixth with a three-run frame that flipped the game entirely, capped by Eugenio Suárez's home run off Greg Weissert, a swing that added 33.4 points of win probability and stood as the decisive moment of the contest. Both clubs finished with seven hits apiece and committed no errors, making that three-run sixth the lone separation between the teams.

Suárez was the game's most consequential offensive figure, finishing with a WPA of plus-28.9 and an RE24 of plus-1.8, while Abreu countered with the top marks on the Boston side at plus-23.6 WPA and plus-2.0 RE24. Sal Stewart also contributed positively for Cincinnati, posting a plus-13.7 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24. Boston mounted a late threat in the ninth when Andruw Monasterio doubled off Emilio Pagán, a play worth plus-13.7 points of win probability, but Trevor Story's subsequent flyout erased that momentum at minus-13.5 points. On the mound, Connelly Early led all pitchers with a plus-23.9 WPA, benefiting directly from Dane Myers grounding into a double play in the fourth that cost Boston minus-13.4 points of win probability. Pagán added plus-15.2 WPA in closing out the game, and Tony Santillan contributed plus-10.8, as Cincinnati's bullpen preserved what the DiamondIQ model ultimately assessed as a certainty by the final out.