Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 1 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays handed the St. Louis Cardinals an 11-7 defeat at Busch Stadium on March 29, 2026, overcoming a game that the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54% home win probability for St. Louis. The Rays did their damage in concentrated bursts, plating three runs in the second inning, three more in the fourth, and a decisive three-run frame in the eighth that ultimately pushed the Cardinals' win probability to zero. Tampa Bay finished with 17 hits while St. Louis managed 11, and the Rays committed one error to the Cardinals' none.
The pivotal swing in the game came in the bottom of the fourth, when Jordan Walker connected on a home run off Steven Matz that shifted win probability 19.4 points in St. Louis's favor, briefly giving the Cardinals momentum after falling behind. However, the Rays answered in the same inning when Yandy Díaz delivered a double off Dustin May that moved Tampa Bay's win probability 10.3 points in their direction. Two innings later, the Cardinals' chances eroded further when Iván Herrera grounded into a double play against Matz, a sequence that cost St. Louis 10.3 points of win probability and extinguished a potential rally. In the eighth, Pedro Pagés drove a home run off Mason Englert worth 11.7 points of win probability, effectively sealing the outcome.
Walker led all batters with a WPA of plus-21.9 and a RE24 of plus-3.2, making him the Cardinals' most impactful offensive contributor despite the loss. For Tampa Bay, Díaz was the standout, posting a WPA of plus-18.3 and a RE24 of plus-3.5, the highest run-expectancy figure of any player in the game. Pagés contributed a WPA of plus-13.0 out of the Rays' lineup. On the mound, Tampa Bay's bullpen trio of Garrett Cleavinger, Justin Bruihl, and Kevin Kelly added 8.8, 8.6, and 7.5 points of win probability respectively, collectively shutting down any Cardinals rally attempts in the late innings and securing the road victory.