The Miami Marlins defeated the Colorado Rockies 4-3 at loanDepot park on March 28, 2026, in a game the DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability that closed at 100 percent. Miami's offense built its margin in pieces, scoring in the third, fifth, and eighth innings while holding Colorado to a pair of runs in the fourth and one in the second. Both teams finished with an error, and the Marlins out-hit the Rockies 10-6 across nine innings.
The game's most consequential swing came in the bottom of the fifth, when Liam Hicks connected on a home run off Michael Lorenzen that shifted win probability by plus-22.1 percent in Miami's favor. Colorado had answered a Marlins third-inning run with a two-run fourth, when Ezequiel Tovar launched a home run off Eury Pérez for a plus-17.5 percent swing that briefly gave the Rockies the lead. The Marlins' eighth-inning insurance run arrived on an Owen Caissie single off Jaden Hill, a plus-15.5 percent move that effectively sealed the outcome. Colorado's chances were further damaged earlier when Graham Pauley grounded out in a key second-inning spot, a minus-9.5 percent shift, and Hicks himself erased a threat with a double play in the seventh, costing Miami minus-8.6 percent before the bullpen steadied things.
Hicks led all position players with a plus-21.1 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24 despite that seventh-inning double play, while Caissie contributed a plus-20.6 percent WPA and plus-1.7 RE24. Agustín Ramírez added plus-11.4 percent WPA and plus-0.9 RE24 in support. On the mound, Pete Fairbanks was the most valuable arm with a plus-15.2 percent WPA, followed by Calvin Faucher at plus-10.6 percent and Zach Agnos at plus-6.7 percent, as the Marlins bullpen preserved a hard-fought one-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.