The Chicago Cubs opened their 2026 home schedule with a dominant 10-2 victory over the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on March 28, handing Washington a lopsided defeat that was largely decided before the halfway point. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Chicago as a modest favorite at 54% and watched that estimate climb steadily to 100% by the final out, with the Cubs' offensive outbursts in the second and sixth innings doing most of the damage.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the second, where a fielding error charged to Miles Mikolas proved to be the game's single most impactful play, swinging Chicago's win probability by 12.0 percentage points. An Alex Bregman flyout in the same frame, counterintuitive as it sounds on the surface, added another 6.8 percentage points in the Cubs' favor under run-expectancy context, reflecting how the inning unfolded with Chicago plating four runs. Miguel Amaya extended the lead with a fourth-inning home run off Mikolas worth 6.6 points of win probability, and the Cubs added four more in the sixth to render the final score academic. Washington managed a James Wood home run off Cade Horton in the fourth and a Nasim Nuñez single in the fifth that each nudged the Nationals' chances modestly, but neither sustained any threat.
Michael Busch led all players by WPA at plus 12.1% with a RE24 of plus 2.4, reflecting his central role in the decisive second inning. Miguel Amaya was nearly as impactful at plus 11.8% WPA and plus 1.2 RE24, while Nico Hoerner contributed plus 6.6% WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 to round out Chicago's top performers at the plate. On the mound, Cade Horton posted the best pitching WPA on either side at plus 5.5%, limiting Washington's ability to generate any sustained momentum despite the Nationals collecting four hits on the day. The model's lean throughout reflected what the final line confirmed: Chicago controlled this game from the second inning forward.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.