The Seattle Mariners handled the Cleveland Guardians 5-1 at T-Mobile Park on March 27, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected emphatically, moving from a 54% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Seattle's offense did its most consequential damage in the middle innings, while George Kirby kept Cleveland's lineup largely in check throughout.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the fourth, when Cole Young connected for a home run off Gavin Williams, a swing that added 31.0 percentage points of win probability and effectively separated the two clubs. Cleveland had actually drawn first blood in the top of the first, but Seattle erased that deficit and pulled ahead with Young's three-run fourth. The Mariners extended their lead in the sixth when Luke Raley added a home run off Colin Holderman, a hit worth another 10.9 percentage points. Earlier, in the third, Leo Rivas had set the table with a triple off Williams that contributed 9.5 percentage points of win probability. Cleveland's best chance to claw back came in the top of the fifth, but Steven Kwan grounded into a double play that cost the Guardians 18.7 percentage points, and a CJ Kayfus walk in the same frame added 6.9 points to Seattle's side of the ledger.
Young finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-25.4 percentage points with a RE24 of plus-2.3, with Rivas and Randy Arozarena also contributing meaningfully at plus-8.5 and plus-8.2 respectively. On the mound, Kirby was the story, posting a WPA of plus-20.0 as he consistently suppressed Cleveland's lineup after the first inning. Eduard Bazardo and Matt Brash added minor contributions in relief. Cleveland's four hits were not nearly enough to threaten a Mariners team that controlled the game from the fourth inning onward.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.