The Los Angeles Dodgers held off the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-4 on March 27, 2026, at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium in a game that turned decisively in the third inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the night assigning the Dodgers a 54 percent home win probability, and while Arizona briefly wrestled for control, that figure reached 100 percent by the final out.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the third, where Los Angeles scored four runs to swing the game's center of gravity. Mookie Betts delivered the most consequential blow of the night, a home run off Ryne Nelson that added 24.7 percent to the Dodgers' win probability and stood as the single largest win-probability swing of the contest. Alex Freeland compounded the damage in the same frame with a home run of his own off Nelson, adding another 10.5 percent. Arizona had answered briefly in the top of the third when Ketel Marte hit a home run off Emmet Sheehan worth 10.2 percent in the Diamondbacks' favor, and the D-backs added a run in the fourth to keep within striking distance. Freeland added further separation with a double off Kevin Ginkel in the eighth, a swing worth 10.7 percent. Any lingering Arizona hope dissolved in the ninth when Marte grounded out against Edwin Díaz, a play that surrendered 10.9 percent in win probability and effectively closed the door.
Betts finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus-20.5 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.9. Freeland was close behind at plus-18.3 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24, while Alek Thomas contributed plus-13.9 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 for Arizona in a losing effort. On the mound, Edwin Díaz led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-15.2 percent, supported by Edgardo Henriquez at plus-10.6 percent and Jonathan Loáisiga at plus-8.4 percent. Los Angeles managed just four hits to Arizona's eight but committed no errors, while the Diamondbacks' lone error contributed to a night where their offensive output simply could not overcome the third-inning damage.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.