The Washington Nationals handed the Chicago Cubs a 10-4 defeat at Wrigley Field on March 26, 2026, a result that rendered the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 54 percent home win probability moot by the final out. Washington was largely quiet through three innings before erupting for six runs in the fourth, then added single runs in the sixth and two more in the ninth to put the game firmly out of reach. Chicago managed two runs in the third and one apiece in the fourth and seventh, but never found consistent answers for a Nationals offense that tallied 11 hits on the night.
The fourth inning was the decisive turning point by every measurable standard. Jacob Young delivered the blow that broke the game open, a home run off Ben Brown that swung win probability 12.7 percent in Washington's favor and served as the inning's defining moment. The frame continued to unravel for Chicago as Matthew Boyd entered and could not stop the damage — Joey Wiemer drew a walk that shifted the needle another 10.0 percent, CJ Abrams followed with a single worth 9.8 percent, a Nasim Nuñez groundout kept the line moving at plus 8.4 percent, and Brady House added a single at plus 7.2 percent. The cumulative effect of that inning effectively ended the contest.
Young finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a plus 14.8 percent win probability added alongside a RE24 of plus 2.7. Wiemer was nearly as impactful at plus 14.0 percent WPA and plus 2.0 RE24, while Michael Busch contributed plus 13.4 percent WPA and plus 1.8 RE24 to round out Washington's top offensive contributors. On the mound, Brad Lord led Nationals relievers with plus 4.7 percent WPA, followed closely by PJ Poulin at plus 4.6 percent, as Washington's pitching staff held Chicago to four runs on eight hits while committing two errors of their own.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.