The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Seattle Mariners 6-4 at T-Mobile Park on March 26, 2026, handing the home side a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate placing Seattle's win probability at 54 percent. Cleveland scored in five of nine innings, collecting 12 hits against just six for Seattle, and the game's decisive turn came in the seventh inning when José Ramírez delivered a double off Gabe Speier that shifted win probability by 28.5 percentage points in Cleveland's favor — the single largest swing of the evening. That blow capped a two-run seventh for the Guardians that effectively broke the game open after Seattle had kept within striking distance on a Luke Raley home run off Tanner Bibee in the fifth, a play that moved Seattle's win probability up 13.1 points at the time.
Seattle's best opportunity to claw back came in the bottom of the seventh, when Dominic Canzone connected on a home run off Shawn Armstrong for a 15.8-point swing, and again in the ninth when Canzone produced a lineout that represented a 14.4-point positive swing for the Mariners — a measure of how threatening the situation was before Cleveland closed the door. Canzone finished as Seattle's top performer by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-35.1 and a RE24 of plus-1.7, though his efforts were ultimately not enough. For Cleveland, Ramírez led all batters with a plus-21.7 WPA, while Brayan Rocchio contributed meaningfully at plus-16.9 WPA and plus-1.3 RE24.
On the mound, Erik Sabrowski was the standout for Cleveland, posting a plus-25.4 WPA that included getting Josh Naylor to ground out in a high-leverage eighth-inning situation — a sequence that swung 12.9 points away from Seattle. Casey Legumina and Connor Brogdon each added positive contributions at plus-7.4 and plus-7.1 WPA respectively, collectively neutralizing Seattle's late threats. The DiamondIQ model's final win probability for Seattle settled at zero percent, reflecting how thoroughly Cleveland controlled the game's closing stages despite the Mariners entering as slight favorites.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.