The New York Yankees shut out the San Francisco Giants 7-0 at Oracle Park on March 25, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 54 percent home-win probability into a zero-percent certainty by game's end. The Yankees did nearly all of their damage in a single devastating inning, scoring five runs in the second and adding two more in the fifth while holding the Giants to just three hits across nine innings.
The second inning was the decisive sequence, and the DiamondIQ model's win-probability swings tell the story precisely. Trent Grisham's triple off Logan Webb carried a 6.5 percent win-probability swing, as did Ryan McMahon's single, while José Caballero added another 5.2 percent swing with a single of his own. The most consequential at-bat of the game, however, was Cody Bellinger's strikeout against Webb, which produced a 9.7 percent positive swing for New York and reflected how thoroughly the Yankees controlled the frame despite Webb being in the circle. On the other side, Harrison Bader's strikeout against Max Fried in the bottom of the second carried a 12.2 percent negative swing for San Francisco, illustrating how quickly Fried extinguished any realistic path back for the Giants.
Max Fried was the dominant individual performer, finishing with a 22.7 percent win-probability added, the highest mark on either side by a substantial margin. Among position players, Bellinger led with a 10.0 percent WPA, followed by McMahon at 7.0 percent and a 1.4 RE24, and Grisham at 5.6 percent and a 1.3 RE24. The Giants' bullpen arms Keaton Winn and Camilo Doval each finished at 0.0 percent WPA, a reflection of how little was left to salvage once the Yankees had thoroughly settled the game by the middle innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.