The Minnesota Twins defeated the Boston Red Sox 9-6 at JetBlue Park on March 23, 2026, overcoming a pregame environment where the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Boston a 65 percent chance of winning at home. Minnesota scored five runs in the fourth inning to seize control, and despite a Red Sox rally in the fifth, the Twins added two more in the eighth to close the door, finishing with 13 hits against Boston's 15 in a game that was closer in the box score than the outcome suggested.
The decisive moment came in the top of the eighth inning when David Bañuelos connected on a home run off Aroldis Chapman, a swing that shifted win probability by 31.7 percent in Minnesota's favor and proved to be the single largest play of the game. Boston had kept itself alive through Connor Wong's fifth-inning double off Eric Orze, which added 19.7 percent to the Red Sox's win probability, and Ceddanne Rafaela's solo home run off Justin Topa in the seventh, worth 18.1 percent. But the Twins responded each time, with Orlando Arcia's fourth-inning single off Johan Oviedo contributing 12.2 percent and anchoring the big frame that originally broke the game open.
Among individual performers, Bañuelos led all batters with a combined WPA of plus-31.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Arcia finished at plus-19.3 percent WPA and plus-1.7 RE24 for his contributions across the game. On the mound, Cole Sands was Minnesota's most impactful reliever at plus-13.3 percent WPA, with Anthony Banda adding plus-7.9 percent and Garrett Whitlock contributing plus-6.6 percent for Boston. The DiamondIQ model finished with a final win probability of zero percent for the Red Sox, reflecting just how thoroughly Minnesota neutralized a game that had started firmly in Boston's favor.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.