The Tampa Bay Rays shut out the Philadelphia Phillies 7-0 at BayCare Ballpark on March 23, 2026, holding them scoreless across all nine innings while collecting 11 hits to Philadelphia's five. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had opened with the Phillies as slight favorites at 52 percent pregame home win probability, but that figure fell to zero percent by the final out as Tampa Bay controlled the contest from start to finish.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the sixth inning, where Tampa Bay broke a scoreless tie with a four-run outburst that effectively ended the game as a competitive contest. Yandy Díaz delivered the biggest blow of the night by win-probability impact, a double off Jonathan Bowlan that swung win probability by plus 18.4 percent and made Díaz the game's top overall performer at plus 24.6 percent WPA and plus 2.8 RE24. A Cedric Mullins walk off Bowlan added another plus 5.4 percent, and when Jesús Luzardo entered he was immediately greeted by a Jake Fraley home run worth plus 13.7 percent win probability. Fraley finished second among position players at plus 11.7 percent WPA. Philadelphia's best opportunity to generate offense came in the bottom of the fifth, when Justin Crawford grounded into a double play off Steven Matz, a swing of minus 8.6 percent win probability that snuffed out the inning and kept the Phillies off the board.
Steven Matz was the standout performer on the mound, posting plus 22.7 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, while Bryan Baker and Jesús Luzardo each contributed positively in relief at plus 4.1 and plus 3.7 percent respectively. Edmundo Sosa added a sixth-inning double off Baker worth plus 5.5 percent WPA as Tampa Bay extended its lead to six runs, with a final two-run eighth inning rounding out the 7-0 final.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.