The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Washington Nationals 8-1 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on March 22, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Baltimore win from 44 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The Orioles built their lead methodically, scoring in the second, third, and sixth innings before adding three more in the eighth, while Washington managed just one run on five hits and committed one error.
The two most decisive swings of the game came off Nationals starter Mitchell Parker in the early innings. Colton Cowser launched a home run in the bottom of the second that shifted win probability 7.8 percent in Baltimore's favor, and Gunnar Henderson followed in the bottom of the third with a home run worth 9.9 percent — the single largest win-probability play of the game. Washington had chances to keep things close, but a Daylen Lile flyout in the top of the fifth represented a 7.3 percent swing against the Nationals, and a José Tena forceout in the fourth cost Washington another 5.4 percent, both coming against Kyle Bradish. A Cowser walk in the bottom of the sixth, worth 5.4 percent, helped Baltimore extend its cushion from there.
Bradish was the game's dominant force, finishing with a WPA of plus-27.9 percent — by far the most valuable individual contribution of the afternoon. Cowser and Henderson led the Baltimore offense, finishing with WPA figures of plus-10.3 and plus-10.8 respectively, each also posting positive RE24 marks of 1.5 and 1.6. Tyler O'Neill contributed a modest plus-3.7 percent WPA, while relievers Jack Sinclair and Rico Garcia added plus-3.5 and plus-3.2 percent respectively to close things out. The Orioles handled the Nationals cleanly, allowing no errors and surrendering just one run in what amounted to a thorough home victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.