The Arizona Diamondbacks rolled to an 11-1 victory over the San Diego Padres at Peoria Stadium on March 22, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a near-even contest at 49 percent for San Diego into a complete rout, with the model's final home win probability settling at zero. Arizona posted 16 hits against zero errors while holding the Padres to just five hits, and the outcome was effectively decided before the game reached its midpoint.
The third inning was the decisive stretch, as Arizona inflicted the bulk of its damage against Walker Buehler in a sequence of high-leverage blows. Jorge Barrosa's home run off Buehler represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game, shifting the outlook by 9.8 percent in Arizona's favor, and Gabriel Moreno followed with a home run of his own worth 9.0 percent. A Yassel Soler single in the same frame added another 6.0 percent, and Ildemaro Vargas extended the damage in the fourth with a home run off Buehler that moved the needle an additional 8.1 percent. San Diego's lone moment of traction came in the second inning when Freddy Fermin struck out against John Curtiss, a sequence that carried a negative 4.0 percent swing against the Padres, underscoring how thoroughly Arizona's pitching neutralized any rally attempts.
By individual contribution, Gabriel Moreno led all players with a WPA of plus 11.1 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.1, while Barrosa finished at plus 10.6 percent WPA and Vargas contributed plus 6.2 percent WPA alongside a plus 1.2 RE24. On the mound, John Curtiss paced Arizona's pitching staff at plus 6.9 percent WPA, followed by Brandyn Garcia at plus 4.0 and Shawn Dubin at plus 2.8, a collective effort that rendered the Padres' offense nearly invisible across nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.