The Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies played to a 4-4 tie on March 20, 2026, at BayCare Ballpark, with neither side able to claim a decisive edge across nine innings. Philadelphia controlled the early narrative in a significant way, erupting for all four of its runs in the bottom of the third inning against Tarik Skubal. Alec Bohm ignited that frame with a double that shifted win probability by 11.7 percentage points, Adolis García followed with a single worth 9.8 points, and Justin Crawford capped the sequence with a triple adding another 9.2 points, leaving Detroit in a substantial hole after three. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Philadelphia's win probability had opened at 54 percent before first pitch, and the Phillies' third-inning outburst pushed that figure considerably higher before the game's most consequential swing occurred.
Detroit clawed back incrementally through the fifth and sixth innings, and then Dillon Dingler delivered the defining moment of the game in the top of the seventh, connecting for a home run off Tanner Banks that produced a 26.2-point win-probability swing, the largest single play of the contest. Dingler finished as the game's top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting marks of plus-23.5 percent and plus-1.9 respectively. Philadelphia had one final opportunity to end matters in the bottom of the ninth, but Brandon Marsh's flyout off Ricky Vanasco paradoxically registered as the second-largest win-probability play of the game at plus-14.0 points from the batting team's perspective, reflecting how close the Phillies came to a walkoff before settling for the draw. On the mound, Enmanuel De Jesus led all pitchers with a plus-19.2 WPA mark, matching Cristopher Sánchez and Trevor Richards as the primary reasons Philadelphia maintained its ground. Detroit finished with a 4-6-1 line against Philadelphia's 4-7-0, leaving the DiamondIQ model's final home win probability at zero percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.