The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Boston Red Sox 2-0 on March 20, 2026, at Charlotte Sports Park, holding Boston scoreless across nine innings while the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 42 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Tampa Bay scored in the first inning and added an insurance run in the seventh, and that two-run cushion proved more than sufficient against a Red Sox offense that managed just five hits and never pushed a run across.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the seventh, when Jonny DeLuca delivered a single off Alec Gamboa that registered the game's largest win-probability swing at plus 11.7 percent. DeLuca finished as the top offensive performer by WPA at plus 11.1 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.0, reflecting how central that hit was to Tampa Bay's ability to close out the game with separation. Boston's best threat materialized in the top of the eighth and ninth innings, but it came to nothing. Matt Thaiss drew a walk off Cam Booser that added 7.1 percent to Boston's win probability in the eighth, only for Nate Eaton to strike out in the same frame, costing the Red Sox 6.3 percent. In the ninth, D'Angelo Ortiz singled off Luis Guerrero for a plus 6.6 percent swing, but Andruw Monasterio grounded into a double play on the same pitcher, erasing 7.1 percent and effectively ending the rally.
On the mound, Shane McClanahan was the story for Tampa Bay, posting a game-high plus 29.2 percent WPA, the dominant pitching contribution of the afternoon. Mason Englert and Cam Booser added plus 8.5 and plus 8.1 percent WPA respectively, giving the Rays a well-distributed pitching effort that kept Boston's lineup in check throughout. Roman Anthony led Red Sox batters with a plus 6.2 percent WPA and plus 0.9 RE24, but the overall offensive output was never enough to threaten Tampa Bay's lead.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.