Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Cleveland Guardians 8-5 at Peoria Stadium on March 14, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved toward decisively after a pivotal third inning swung the contest. San Diego entered with a 59% pre-game home win probability, and by the final out that figure had reached 100%. The Padres did their most critical damage in the bottom of the third, when Miguel Andujar launched a home run off Logan Allen that added 28.1% in win probability, the single most consequential play of the game. Cleveland had briefly generated life in the top half of that same inning, as Petey Halpin connected for a home run off Nick Pivetta worth a 10.9% swing, but San Diego's response more than neutralized that gain. The Padres then extended their advantage with a two-run fourth and another two-run fifth, the latter punctuated by Freddy Fermin's home run off Shawn Armstrong, which added 13.6% in win probability and pushed Cleveland further from reach.

Andujar finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus 23.0% with a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Fermin was close behind at plus 21.8% and a RE24 of plus 2.6, the highest run-environment figure among all batters. José Ramírez was Cleveland's most impactful offensive presence, posting a plus 15.7% WPA and plus 1.6 RE24 largely on the strength of a bases-loaded walk off Pivetta in the fourth that added 8.4% in win probability. Chase DeLauter also reached on a field error in the fifth worth 6.9%, though neither moment proved sufficient to close the gap. On the mound, Kleiber Olmedo led San Diego's pitching staff with a plus 2.9% WPA, followed by Luis Gutierrez at plus 2.6% and Kyle Hart at plus 2.2%. The Guardians finished with seven hits and no errors while the Padres collected eleven hits and committed two errors, though San Diego's offensive production ultimately rendered those miscues inconsequential.