The New York Yankees defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 8-1 at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 11, 2026, finishing with 10 hits to Toronto's four. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 54 percent home win probability and closed it at 100 percent, reflecting just how thoroughly the Yankees seized control of the contest.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the third inning, when New York scored four runs and effectively ended the competitive portion of the game. Giancarlo Stanton delivered the biggest swing of the afternoon, a home run off Eric Lauer that shifted win probability by 13.1 percent in New York's favor. Trent Grisham followed with a double off Lauer worth 12.0 percent, and Randal Grichuk added another double in the same frame for an additional 6.1 percent swing. The Blue Jays generated a brief response in the top of the fourth, when Jesús Sánchez doubled off Cam Schlittler for an 8.1 percent favorable shift and Toronto eventually pushed across their lone run, but the deficit was too deep to meaningfully threaten. Myles Straw's lineout against Kervin Castro in the fifth, costing Toronto 6.1 percent win probability, illustrated how thoroughly New York's pitching staff suppressed any rally attempts.
Stanton led all players with a cumulative WPA of plus-16.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.5, while Grisham finished at plus-12.4 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. Nathan Lukes contributed plus-6.6 percent WPA on the offensive side as well. On the mound, Kervin Castro and Carlos Lagrange paced the New York staff with WPA figures of plus-8.0 and plus-7.9 percent respectively, with Schlittler adding plus-2.7 percent in a collective shutdown effort that held Toronto to a single run across nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.