The Athletics defeated the Cincinnati Reds 9-7 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 9, 2026, handing the home side a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the day with Cincinnati holding a 54% win probability. Both teams finished with 12 hits, but Oakland's two Cincinnati errors and a pair of decisive offensive moments proved to be the difference. The Athletics struck early and struck hard, plating four runs in the first inning before adding two more in the fourth. The Reds responded with a four-run eighth inning, but it came too late to overcome the deficit.
The game's single most consequential play came in the top of the fourth, when Jeff McNeil connected on a home run off Connor Phillips that swung win probability 15.4 points in Oakland's favor. McNeil finished as the game's top batter overall, posting a WPA of plus 16.4% and a RE24 of plus 2.4. On the Cincinnati side, Rece Hinds provided a bright spot with a home run off Domingo Robles in the bottom of the eighth that shifted win probability 10.7 points toward the Reds, fueling that late four-run frame. However, two separate groundouts into double plays, one by Matt McLain in the sixth off Brooks Kriske and one by JJ Bleday in the second off Jack Perkins, each swung momentum 10.1 points away from Cincinnati and repeatedly stalled Reds rallies.
Oakland's pitching staff was anchored by Jack Perkins, who led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 13.3%, with Jake Garland and Micah Dallas adding plus 4.9% and plus 4.4% respectively. Ruben Ibarra cemented the outcome with a groundout in the bottom of the ninth off Colton Johnson that registered a plus 11.6% win-probability swing, and Ibarra finished second among all batters with a WPA of plus 13.7%. Cameron Leary also contributed meaningfully, posting a plus 11.8% WPA. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Cincinnati's chances fell all the way to zero by the game's end, reflecting just how thoroughly Oakland controlled the outcome despite the Reds' late push.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.