The Washington Nationals defeated Venezuela 5-1 on March 4, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 54% before the game to 100% by the final out. Washington scored in the first and sixth innings, with the bulk of the damage coming in that sixth-inning frame when the Nationals put up three runs to effectively close the door on any Venezuelan comeback.
The most decisive single moment of the game came in the bottom of the sixth, when Keibert Ruiz connected on a home run off Christian Suarez, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 24.2 percentage points and stands as the largest WPA play of the contest. Ruiz finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 22.2 and posted a RE24 of plus 2.4, reflecting the direct run-environment impact of his blow. On the Venezuelan side, Jackson Chourio drew a walk off Richard Lovelady in the top of the fifth that registered a plus 12.8 percentage point swing, the most meaningful offensive moment for Venezuela, though it ultimately produced nothing on the scoreboard. Clayton Beeter kept Venezuela contained in the fourth, as strikeouts of Ezequiel Tovar and Wilyer Abreu removed a combined 17.2 percentage points of win probability from the visitors in that inning alone.
Among the pitching staff, Antonio Senzatela led Washington's contributors with a plus 12.2 WPA, followed by Foster Griffin at plus 7.6 and PJ Poulin at plus 7.3, indicating a collective bullpen effort that held Venezuela to a single run on five hits with no errors from the pitching side. Willson Contreras added a plus 8.0 WPA contribution at the plate to round out Washington's offensive performers, while Chourio's plus 18.0 WPA made him Venezuela's lone bright spot in a game the Nationals controlled from the opening frame.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.