The United States routed the Colorado Rockies 14-4 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 4, 2026, in a game that was never particularly close once the middle innings arrived. The DiamondIQ model opened with Colorado holding a 54% win probability at first pitch, but that figure eroded steadily before reaching 0% by the final out. USA finished with 14 hits and committed no errors, while Colorado managed only 6 hits and was hurt by 2 errors of their own.
The decisive momentum shift came in the fourth and fifth innings, where the bulk of the win-probability movement was concentrated. The biggest single play of the game was Alex Bregman's home run off Gabriel Hughes in the top of the fifth, which added 23.7% to the United States' win probability and effectively put the game away. Just one inning earlier, Kyle Karros answered a Rockies home run by Mickey Moniak off Clayton Kershaw with a home run of his own off Carson Skipper, swinging the win probability 21.6% in Colorado's favor before USA reclaimed control. Will Smith extended the lead with a home run off RJ Petit in the top of the sixth, worth an additional 12.1% in win probability, capping a stretch of four home runs across three innings that defined the contest. Bobby Witt Jr. also factored prominently, registering a lineout off TJ Shook in the fourth that nonetheless carried a 10.2% win-probability implication given the game situation.
By the numbers, Bregman led all players with a WPA of plus 30.1% and a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Karros posted the highest RE24 of the top performers at plus 2.0 alongside a WPA of plus 22.7%. Witt Jr. contributed plus 10.3% WPA. On the mound, Brad Keller and Ryan Yarbrough each added plus 6.8% WPA for the United States, with Zach Agnos contributing plus 5.3% in a balanced pitching effort that held Colorado to four runs on a sparse six hits.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.