The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated Mexico 7-5 on March 4, 2026, at Camelback Ranch, overcoming a three-run deficit in the third inning to pull away with a decisive eighth-inning rally. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Dodgers a 54% win probability and closed at 100%, reflecting how thoroughly Los Angeles controlled the final stages of the contest.
The turning points were distributed across multiple innings, but the two most consequential came in opposite halves of the game. In the top of the third, Nacho Alvarez Jr. delivered a single off Jacob Frost that added 16.4% to Mexico's win probability, and his second single of the day off Emmet Sheehan in the fifth tacked on another 12.3%, making him the game's most impactful hitter by WPA at plus-23.6% with a RE24 of plus-2.5. Mexico's momentum, however, was stalled in the fifth when Joey Ortiz grounded into a double play off Carlos Duran, a sequence that swung win probability 18.2 points in Los Angeles's favor and proved to be one of the game's most costly at-bats. Dalton Rushing then extended the Dodgers' third-inning response with a double off Manny Barreda worth plus-10.9%, and Joe Vetrano's eighth-inning double against Luis Miranda, the single largest swing of the night at plus-19.7%, sealed the outcome as Los Angeles scored three runs in that frame.
On the pitching side, Carlos Duran led all arms with a WPA of plus-18.2%, driven largely by inducing that fifth-inning double play, while Jack Dreyer and Blake Treinen contributed plus-10.6% and plus-8.3% respectively to hold Mexico scoreless through the late innings. Rushing finished second among position players at plus-17.4% WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, and Jonathan Aranda's plus-16.5% WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 rounded out the Dodgers' most productive offensive contributors in a game that saw Los Angeles collect 12 hits against Mexico's two errors.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.