The Chicago White Sox defeated the Chicago Cubs 5-1 at Sloan Park on March 1, 2026, handing the Cubs a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming by game's end, as the home win probability fell from 54% before first pitch all the way to 0%. Chicago's South Siders built their lead early and never relinquished it, plating runs in each of the first four innings while holding the Cubs to a single run in the opening frame.
The decisive stretch came in the third inning, where a pair of home runs rewrote the game's trajectory. Austin Hays connected off Shota Imanaga for a swing worth +9.8% in win probability, and Lenyn Sosa followed with a blast off Zane Mills that added another +9.2%. The Cubs' best counter-opportunity was blunted in the second inning when Moisés Ballesteros was caught stealing third base off Anthony Kay, a sequence that shifted win probability 7.0% against the home side. In the fourth, Jacob Gonzalez extended the White Sox advantage with a double off Hunter Harvey worth +7.0%, while Carson Kelly grounded into a double play off Jordan Hicks to close out another Cubs threat at the same 7.0% swing.
Sosa was the game's most impactful offensive contributor, finishing with a cumulative WPA of +14.2% and a RE24 of +1.5, matching Alex Bregman's RE24 mark despite Bregman posting a WPA of +7.6% of his own. Hays added +8.7% WPA to his ledger. On the mound, Anthony Kay led White Sox pitchers with a WPA of +7.6%, supported by Garrett Schoenle at +4.4% and Jordan Leasure at +4.2% as the bullpen closed out the Cubs without further damage.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.