The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 9-5 on February 23, 2026, at Goodyear Ballpark, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Cleveland's win probability moving from a 54 percent pregame figure to a final reading of 100 percent as the Guardians built an insurmountable lead through the middle innings.
The decisive stretch began in the bottom of the third, when Chase DeLauter turned a double off Juan Burgos into a 12.0 percent swing in Cleveland's favor, opening the scoring in what became a two-run frame. The Guardians extended their advantage in the bottom of the fifth when José Ramírez launched a home run off Antonio Menendez, the single most impactful play of the game at plus 15.3 percent win probability added. Arizona mounted its most credible threat in the top of the eighth, where Gavin Logan reached on a hit by pitch off Tyler Thornton for a 13.6 percent swing in the Diamondbacks' direction. However, Thornton contained the damage, getting Ivan Melendez to ground out — a minus 14.3 percent swing — and striking out Jose Fernandez at minus 9.0 percent, effectively closing off Arizona's comeback window. Cleveland answered with two runs in the bottom half, sealing the outcome.
Individually, Ramírez finished as the game's top offensive performer by a clear margin, posting a WPA of plus 22.1 percent and an RE24 of plus 3.3. Logan led Arizona's contributors with a WPA of plus 17.5 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.3, while DeLauter added plus 8.6 percent WPA for Cleveland. On the mound, Tyler Thornton was the most impactful pitcher in the game at plus 11.5 percent WPA, followed by Kolby Allard at plus 7.8 percent and Tim Herrin at plus 5.4 percent, as Cleveland's bullpen collectively preserved the four-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.