The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the San Diego Padres 5-1 at Peoria Stadium on February 22, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifting from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability to zero by the final out. The outcome was effectively settled in the third inning, when Los Angeles plated four runs to take a lead they would never relinquish. Nick Senzel delivered the decisive blow of the afternoon, a double off Triston McKenzie that shifted win probability by 17.4 percent in the Dodgers' favor, the single largest swing of the game. Will Smith followed with a single that added another 8.0 percent, and after McKenzie departed, Ryan Fitzgerald drew a walk off Michael Flynn worth 6.4 percent, extending the rally and deepening the Padres' deficit before the inning was done.
San Diego's best chance to claw back came and went quietly. Jake Cronenworth grounded into a double play in the bottom of the fourth off Garrett McDaniels, a sequence that cost the Padres 4.5 percentage points of win probability and effectively ended any realistic comeback path. Jase Bowen drew a walk in the sixth that nudged San Diego's outlook by 4.0 percent, but the club managed just one run across the entire game, that coming in the eighth inning. Senzel finished as the clear standout by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, posting a WPA of plus 18.8 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.2, while Will Smith added plus 6.9 percent WPA. On the mound, Will Klein, Patrick Copen, and Garrett McDaniels each contributed positively, with Klein leading Dodgers pitchers at plus 4.6 percent WPA, as Los Angeles held San Diego to five hits on the afternoon.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.