The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Baltimore Orioles 8-2 at Ed Smith Stadium on February 21, 2026, in a game that was never particularly close after the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Baltimore holding a 54% win probability as the home side, but that edge evaporated quickly and closed at 0% by the final out.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the fifth inning, when Pittsburgh broke the game open with a six-run frame against Dietrich Enns. Endy Rodríguez delivered the most impactful blow of the afternoon, a home run that shifted win probability by plus-16.6 percentage points in Pittsburgh's favor. Ryan O'Hearn followed with another home run off Enns, adding an additional plus-8.1 percentage points and effectively closing the door on any Baltimore comeback. Baltimore had generated its only real threat in the bottom of the fourth, when Ryan Mountcastle's double off Michael Darrell-Hicks moved the needle plus-7.3 points toward the Orioles, but a Blaze Alexander pop out in the same frame swung momentum back by minus-5.2 points and stranded the threat.
Rodríguez finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-17.2%, paired with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while O'Hearn posted a RE24 of plus-2.4 to lead all batters in run-environment impact. Weston Wilson also contributed meaningfully at plus-6.3% WPA. On the mound, Michael Darrell-Hicks led Pittsburgh's pitching staff with a plus-6.1% WPA, followed closely by Noah Murdock at plus-5.6% and Yennier Cano at plus-5.1%, as the trio combined to hold Baltimore to two runs on four hits after the Pirates built their commanding lead.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.