The Baltimore Orioles defeated the New York Yankees 2-0 on February 20, 2026, at Ed Smith Stadium, with all the scoring coming in the bottom of the sixth inning. Baltimore out-hit New York eight to three while neither team committed an error, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out.
The decisive moment of the game came when Pete Alonso connected for a home run off Bradley Hanner in the bottom of the sixth, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-23.3 percent and effectively put the game away. Jeremiah Jackson added a single in the same frame off Hanner for an additional plus-4.7 percent swing, accounting for all of Baltimore's offense. The path to that point was not without resistance from the Orioles themselves, as three double plays in the middle innings — Heston Kjerstad grounding into one in the second for minus-8.2 percent, Coby Mayo in the fifth for minus-6.6 percent, and Colton Cowser in the fourth for minus-6.0 percent — collectively worked against Baltimore's ability to score earlier.
Alonso finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-20.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Sam Huff and Tyler O'Neill contributed plus-6.0 and plus-5.6 percent respectively. On the mound, Trey Gibson led all pitchers with a plus-21.6 percent WPA, with Elmer Rodríguez adding plus-12.0 percent and Jose Espada contributing plus-7.1 percent in support of the shutout effort. The DiamondIQ model leans toward the Orioles pitching staff as the primary driver of the outcome, holding New York to three hits across nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.