Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Houston Astros 3-2 on August 24, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 59 percent pre-game home win probability to 100 percent by the final out. The game was largely a pitching duel through five innings, with Houston scratching out a run in the first before both clubs went quiet until the sixth inning changed everything.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the sixth, when Jackson Holliday delivered a double off Tayler Scott that swung win probability by 36.5 percent, the single largest play of the game and the moment that effectively decided the outcome. That blow capped a three-run inning for Baltimore that erased a brief Houston lead established moments earlier in the top half. Jeremy Peña had given the Astros a temporary advantage with a home run off Albert Suárez that added 13.5 percent win probability, but Houston left momentum on the table in the third when Yainer Diaz grounded into a double play off Suárez, costing the Astros 9.6 percent in win probability. Jon Singleton's strikeout against Seranthony Domínguez to end the ninth, a 7.1 percent win-probability swing, confirmed Baltimore's hold on the game.

Holliday finished as the game's most impactful offensive player at plus-36.5 percent WPA and plus-2.5 RE24, while Colton Cowser contributed a lineout in the eighth that registered as a positive outcome at plus-7.8 percent WPA given the situation, finishing at plus-9.9 percent WPA overall. On the pitching side, Framber Valdez led all pitchers with plus-31.1 percent WPA despite pitching for the losing team, reflecting his effectiveness in keeping Baltimore in check through much of the contest. Seranthony Domínguez added plus-15.2 percent WPA closing out Houston, and Yennier Cano contributed plus-14.8 percent WPA in the Orioles' bullpen effort.