New York Mets at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres handed the New York Mets a 7-0 shutout at Petco Park on August 23, 2024, holding New York to just two hits across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring San Diego with a 58% home win probability, and that figure climbed steadily to 100% as the Padres built an insurmountable lead through the first three frames, scoring one run in the first, three in the second, and two in the third before coasting through the remainder of the contest.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the second inning against Mets starter Paul Blackburn. Kyle Higashioka delivered the decisive blow with a home run that shifted San Diego's win probability by plus 10.1 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. Jake Cronenworth added to the damage with a single worth plus 4.1 percentage points, while Xander Bogaerts drew a strikeout that prevented further Mets relief, adding plus 5.8 percentage points to San Diego's ledger. Jurickson Profar's double play was the lone negative swing in the inning at minus 4.2 percentage points, briefly slowing the Padres' momentum. Luis Arraez extended the lead in the third with a single off Ryne Stanek, contributing plus 3.3 percentage points to the home side.

Higashioka led all batters with a plus 13.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.6, while Arraez finished at plus 8.2% WPA and a game-high RE24 of plus 2.2, underscoring his consistent presence throughout the Padres' early offensive outburst. On the mound, Joe Musgrove was equally dominant, posting a plus 11.1% WPA as he stifled a Mets lineup that mustered no runs on just two hits. Danny Young and Sean Reynolds handled the final frames without incident, completing a thorough and methodical Padres victory.