St. Louis Cardinals at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals handed the Minnesota Twins a 6-1 defeat at Target Field on August 23, 2024, methodically dismantling a Minnesota squad that entered as a 59% favorite according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. By the final out, that home win probability had collapsed to zero, a complete reversal that unfolded largely through a decisive third and fourth inning sequence against Twins starter David Festa.

The Cardinals did their most damaging work against Festa in those early frames. Masyn Winn opened the scoring with a single in the third that shifted win probability 10.5 points in St. Louis's favor, and the fourth inning brought compounding damage. Lars Nootbaar delivered the single biggest swing of the game, a double off Festa that added 15.2 percentage points to the Cardinals' win probability, while Willson Contreras extended the damage with a double of his own worth another 6.9 points. Brendan Donovan then added a solo home run off Jorge Alcala in the sixth for another 9.6-point swing, and St. Louis tacked on two more runs in the eighth to set the final margin. Austin Martin's second-inning single off Andre Pallante represented Minnesota's most consequential offensive moment at plus 5.7 points, but it proved an isolated bright spot in an otherwise muted night for the Twins lineup.

On the individual ledger, Nootbaar finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus 18.6 with a RE24 of plus 1.3, followed by Winn at plus 14.0 and plus 0.8, and Contreras at plus 7.1 and plus 0.8. Andre Pallante was the story on the mound, posting a dominant plus 29.0 WPA to lead all pitchers in the game, keeping Minnesota's lineup in check across his outing and allowing the Cardinals offense to do the rest.