MLB Recap · August 23, 2024

Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

LAA4
Final
TOR5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAA040000000461
TOR0002010025100

The Story

The Toronto Blue Jays completed a dramatic comeback at Rogers Centre on August 23, 2024, walking off the Los Angeles Angels 5-4 after trailing by four runs through much of the contest. The Angels grabbed a 4-0 lead with a four-run second inning, and that margin held until the Blue Jays chipped away with two runs in the fourth and one in the sixth, pulling to within one before the game reached its decisive ninth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game assigning Toronto a 60 percent chance of winning at home, and while that probability eroded sharply through the middle frames, it ultimately closed at 100 percent as the Blue Jays completed the stunning rally.

The ninth inning against Roansy Contreras was where the game turned entirely. Addison Barger connected for a home run that shifted Toronto's win probability by +35.9 percent, and Joey Loperfido followed with his own home run, a swing worth +44.1 percent in win probability that effectively ended the contest. Those two back-to-back shots off Contreras accounted for the entirety of the Blue Jays' game-winning surge and represented the two largest single-play probability swings of the night. Alejandro Kirk had kept Toronto's hopes alive earlier with a +14.1 percent single off Jack Kochanowicz in the sixth, while Ernie Clement's flyout in the eighth against Ben Joyce had been the evening's most damaging out, costing the Blue Jays 18.7 percent in win probability at a critical juncture.

By final WPA totals, Loperfido led all players at +50.0 percent with a RE24 of +1.2, while Barger finished at +27.6 percent and Kirk contributed +15.3 percent. On the pitching side, Ben Joyce topped Toronto's staff at +23.3 percent despite surrendering a critical out in the eighth, with Hunter Strickland adding +11.6 percent and José Quijada contributing +8.7 percent. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the ninth-inning pair of home runs as the unambiguous turning point in a game that looked firmly in Los Angeles's grasp for the better part of seven innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAA bats firstFinalTOR win %LAA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 59.8% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Joey Loperfido Home Run
Bot 9th · off Roansy Contreras
+44.1%
Addison Barger Home Run
Bot 9th · off Roansy Contreras
+35.9%
Ernie Clement Flyout
Bot 8th · off Ben Joyce
-18.7%
Alejandro Kirk Single
Bot 6th · off Jack Kochanowicz
+14.1%
Ernie Clement Groundout
Bot 2nd · off Jack Kochanowicz
-11.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Joey Loperfido+50.0%+1.2 RE24
Addison Barger+27.6%+0.6 RE24
Alejandro Kirk+15.3%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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