MLB Recap · August 21, 2024

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

SEA4
Final
LAD8

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SEA010001011492
LAD00215000-8101

The Story

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Seattle Mariners 8-4 at Dodger Stadium on August 21, 2024, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's win probability from a pre-game estimate of 63 percent in favor of the home side to a final certainty of 100 percent. The decisive turning point came in the bottom of the third inning, when Mookie Betts laced a double off Logan Gilbert that shifted win probability by plus-18.5 percent, the single largest swing of the game. That blow ignited a Dodgers offense that kept Gilbert under sustained pressure, as the fifth inning brought additional damage when Freddie Freeman doubled for plus-8.1 percent and Max Muncy followed with a double off reliever Trent Thornton for plus-6.2 percent, effectively salting the game away with a five-run frame.

Gilbert struggled to contain the Los Angeles lineup and absorbed the bulk of the damage before Thornton entered, with the Mariners' errors compounding the pitching difficulties across a final line of four runs allowed on nine hits and two Seattle errors. On the offensive side for Seattle, the Mariners managed to scratch across single runs in the second, sixth, eighth, and ninth innings but never mounted a serious threat against a Dodgers pitching staff anchored by Jack Flaherty, who led all pitchers with plus-7.1 percent WPA. Randy Arozarena's flyout in the top of the third, which cost Seattle minus-5.5 percent in win probability during a moment when they might have seized momentum, illustrated how narrowly the Mariners missed opportunities to make the game competitive.

Betts finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer with plus-17.6 percent WPA and plus-0.5 RE24, while Max Muncy contributed plus-5.4 percent WPA and led all position players with plus-2.0 RE24, reflecting the run-environment value of his fifth-inning double. Teoscar Hernández added plus-6.7 percent WPA and plus-0.8 RE24 to round out the Dodgers' most productive contributors in what became a comfortable home victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SEA bats firstFinalLAD win %SEA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 63.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Mookie Betts Double
Bot 3rd · off Logan Gilbert
+18.5%
Freddie Freeman Double
Bot 5th · off Logan Gilbert
+8.1%
Will Smith Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Logan Gilbert
-6.7%
Max Muncy Double
Bot 5th · off Trent Thornton
+6.2%
Randy Arozarena Flyout
Top 3rd · off Jack Flaherty
-5.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Mookie Betts+17.6%+0.5 RE24
Teoscar Hernández+6.7%+0.8 RE24
Max Muncy+5.4%+2.0 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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