Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 10-6 on August 21, 2024, at Busch Stadium, rallying from a scoreless early game to deliver a decisive late-inning surge that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 45 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game was largely quiet through three innings before St. Louis broke through with two runs in the fourth, and the two clubs traded blows across the middle frames before the Cardinals pulled away with a four-run tenth that sealed the outcome.

The most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the ninth, when Tommy Pham drew a walk off Devin Williams that shifted win probability by 40.8 percent, the single largest swing of the game. Pham finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-39.5 percent with an RE24 of plus-0.5. José Fermín followed with a double off Williams in that same frame, adding another 21.4 percent to St. Louis's win probability. Earlier in the game, Luken Baker's home run off Bryan Hudson in the bottom of the seventh had moved the needle 26.6 percent in the Cardinals' favor, while a Joey Ortiz double off Andrew Kittredge in the top of the eighth had briefly pushed Milwaukee's case by 32.1 percent, making Ortiz the second-leading batter by WPA at plus-36.4 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.1. Jackson Chourio also posted a notable performance at plus-26.6 WPA and the game's highest RE24 among top batters at plus-2.4, though it was not enough to keep Milwaukee competitive.

On the pitching side, Joel Payamps led Cardinals relievers with a WPA contribution of plus-13.3 percent, followed by Joe Ross at plus-12.1 percent and Ryan Fernandez at plus-3.4 percent. St. Louis finished with 13 hits against Milwaukee's 11, and a four-run tenth inning served as the decisive blow in a game the Cardinals ultimately controlled down the stretch.