Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Boston Red Sox 4-2 on August 18, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with Baltimore's starting pitching and a pair of home runs proving decisive in what was a low-scoring affair through four innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate entered the game favoring Baltimore at 60% and climbed to 100% by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly the Orioles controlled the contest once they broke through offensively.

The pivotal stretch came in the fifth and sixth innings, when Baltimore turned a scoreless game into a commanding lead. Adley Rutschman opened the scoring in the bottom of the fifth with a home run off Kutter Crawford, a swing worth a 12.4% shift in win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Gunnar Henderson followed in the sixth with a home run off Bailey Horn, adding another 12.6% swing and effectively putting the game out of reach at 4-0. Boston attempted a rally in the eighth inning, with Rafael Devers delivering a double off Cionel Pérez that registered a 10.0% swing, but Yennier Cano entered and extinguished the threat, recording strikeouts of Mickey Gasper and Tyler O'Neill that collectively erased 13.1% in Red Sox win probability. Those strikeouts, combined with Cano's 6.5% WPA contribution, sealed Baltimore's advantage.

Albert Suárez was the standout performer of the night, leading all pitchers with a 24.5% WPA, while Seranthony Domínguez added 8.7%. On the offensive side, Triston Casas led all batters with a 11.8% WPA and 0.9 RE24, while Rutschman finished at 11.1% WPA and 0.8 RE24. Boston finished with 11 hits against Baltimore's 3, a disparity that made the final margin all the more striking and underscored how efficiently the Orioles converted their limited opportunities.