Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 2-1 at Busch Stadium on August 18, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals win dropping from 55 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. The game was a tight, low-scoring affair that remained scoreless through four innings before Shohei Ohtani broke the deadlock in the top of the fifth with a home run off Sonny Gray, a swing that shifted win probability 12.7 percent in Los Angeles's favor. The Dodgers carried that 2-0 lead — bolstered by a Miguel Rojas double play in the third that cost St. Louis 15.6 percent in win probability — into the eighth inning, where Lars Nootbaar pulled the Cardinals to within one with a solo home run off Daniel Hudson, the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 18.2 percent for the home side.

From that point forward, however, the Cardinals could not convert. Masyn Winn's flyout to end the eighth, worth minus 12.9 percent in win probability for St. Louis, kept the deficit at one, and Nolan Arenado's game-ending double play off Michael Kopech in the ninth added a final swing of plus 16.3 percent back toward Los Angeles. Clayton Kershaw was the game's most dominant performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, contributing plus 27.1 percent in win probability over his outing, while Evan Phillips added plus 8.8 percent in relief. Among position players, Nootbaar led all Cardinals at plus 18.2 percent WPA, though his effort ultimately fell short, and Gavin Lux quietly paced the Dodgers with plus 11.1 percent WPA and a team-best plus 1.2 RE24 at the plate.