Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays survived a furious Arizona Diamondbacks rally to win 8-7 in 12 innings at Tropicana Field on August 18, 2024, in a game the DiamondIQ model entered with the Rays as nearly even favorites at 49% pre-game win probability before finishing at 100% following a walk-off in the bottom of the 12th.

The game's most decisive sequence unfolded across the final innings in both directions. Arizona appeared to seize control in the top of the ninth when Adrian Del Castillo connected on a home run off Pete Fairbanks, a swing that added 36.6% to the Diamondbacks' win probability and represented the most impactful offensive moment of the night by run expectancy, with Del Castillo finishing at a +1.9 RE24. The D-backs further threatened in the top of the 10th, where Joc Pederson's single off Garrett Cleavinger added 25.0% win probability, but that inning also featured a damaging turn when Eugenio Suárez was caught stealing home, a play that swung 23.1% in Tampa Bay's favor and effectively neutralized Arizona's momentum. The Rays answered in the bottom of the 10th when Taylor Walls delivered a single off Kevin Ginkel that added 42.6% win probability, the single largest positive swing of the game. Arizona pushed back in the top of the 12th on a Geraldo Perdomo single off Edwin Uceta worth 32.0%, but Tampa Bay responded with the game-ending run in the bottom half to close it out.

Perdomo and Walls were the game's most impactful hitters by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing at +38.8% and +39.3% WPA respectively, while Del Castillo's +38.2% WPA and game-high +1.9 RE24 made him Arizona's standout despite the loss. On the mound, Tyler Alexander was the most valuable arm by WPA at +14.8%, with Drew Rasmussen contributing +5.3% in support of the Rays' pitching effort.