Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays shut out the Chicago Cubs 1-0 on August 18, 2024, at Wrigley Field, holding on through a tense ninth inning to deny the Cubs a comeback. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Chicago as a 56% favorite but closed at 0% as Toronto's pitching staff carried a slim lead through all nine frames. The lone run came in the second inning, and that single tally proved enough as the Blue Jays limited the Cubs to just four hits on the night.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the ninth, where the DiamondIQ model's win-probability estimates swung sharply on multiple pitches from closer Chad Green. Cody Bellinger opened the inning with a single that added 9.0% to Chicago's win probability, putting the tying run on base. However, Seiya Suzuki followed with a flyout that cost the Cubs 8.5%, and Nico Hoerner's lineout removed another 10.7%. Dansby Swanson then grounded out to end the game, a play that shifted 27.0% of win probability back to Toronto and represented the single most consequential moment of the contest. One inning earlier in the eighth, Isaac Paredes struck out against Génesis Cabrera, a swing of negative 16.5% that effectively extinguished Chicago's most dangerous threat before it could fully develop.

On the mound, Bowden Francis was the standout performer, leading all pitchers with a 46.4% WPA contribution, a figure that reflects how thoroughly he suppressed the Cubs offense across his innings. Cabrera added 16.5% and Ethan Roberts contributed 14.0%, combining with Francis and Green to complete the shutout. Among position players, Dansby Swanson led Chicago batters with a 9.7% WPA despite his season-ending groundout, while Joey Loperfido posted the best RE24 among Toronto's offensive contributors at plus-0.7.