MLB Recap · August 17, 2024

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

CWS1
Final
HOU6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CWS100000000152
HOU00310011-6130

The Story

The Houston Astros handled the Chicago White Sox 6-1 on August 17, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate from an 81% pre-game Houston win probability to a near-certain 100% by game's end. Houston's 13 hits against Chicago's two errors told the story of a methodical dismantling, with the Astros doing the bulk of their damage in the third inning, when they scored three runs to pull away from what had been a slim 1-0 Chicago lead through the first frame.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the third, where Jose Altuve's single off Chris Flexen represented the game's single largest win-probability swing, adding 16.6% in Houston's favor. Yordan Alvarez followed with another single off Flexen in the same inning, contributing a further 9.3% swing. Flexen was at the center of the game's most consequential moments in both directions, as Victor Caratini's flyout in the second and Yainer Diaz's pop out in the first each briefly swung win probability toward Chicago by 11.2% and 10.5% respectively, though those squandered opportunities ultimately proved inconsequential given Houston's offensive output.

Among individual performers, Altuve finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 12.4% with a RE24 of plus 1.1, closely followed by Alvarez at plus 11.0% and plus 1.1 RE24. On the mound, Hunter Brown led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 9.1%, anchoring a Houston staff that also received contributions from Fraser Ellard at plus 2.2% and Bryan Abreu at plus 1.9%. Lenyn Sosa ranked third among batters by WPA at plus 5.0%, though his minus 0.4 RE24 illustrated the limits of Chicago's lone bright spot in an otherwise lopsided afternoon.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CWS bats firstFinalHOU win %CWS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 81.3% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jose Altuve Single
Bot 3rd · off Chris Flexen
+16.6%
Victor Caratini Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Chris Flexen
-11.2%
Yainer Diaz Pop Out
Bot 1st · off Chris Flexen
-10.5%
Yordan Alvarez Single
Bot 3rd · off Chris Flexen
+9.3%
Lenyn Sosa Strikeout
Top 1st · off Hunter Brown
+9.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Jose Altuve+12.4%+1.1 RE24
Yordan Alvarez+11.0%+1.1 RE24
Lenyn Sosa+5.0%-0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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