Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox handed the Baltimore Orioles a 5-1 defeat at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 17, 2024, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that placed Baltimore's win probability at 59% before first pitch. The game remained scoreless through five innings before both offenses broke through in the sixth, but it was Boston that seized control in the seventh and never looked back, ultimately holding Baltimore to just five hits on the night.
The pivotal sequence came in the top of the seventh, when Jarren Duran delivered a single off Yennier Cano that shifted win probability by +25.4% in Boston's favor, representing the single largest swing of the game. That blow capped a seventh-inning rally that added two runs to Boston's ledger and effectively put the game out of reach. The Orioles had briefly drawn even in the bottom of the sixth when Gunnar Henderson connected for a home run off Brayan Bello, a swing worth +15.5% in Baltimore's favor, but that momentum proved short-lived. In the bottom of the seventh, Anthony Santander grounded out against Lucas Sims in a spot where Baltimore needed a rally, a play that carried a -14.5% win-probability swing and underscored how thoroughly Boston's bullpen had shut the door. Rafael Devers added a home run off Burch Smith in the eighth, a +12.3% swing that sealed the final margin.
Duran finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a +19.6% WPA and +0.8 RE24, while Tyler O'Neill contributed a key sixth-inning single off Cade Povich that registered +13.4% WPA and left him with a +14.6% WPA and +1.1 RE24 on the night. Henderson led Baltimore at +14.2% WPA with his solo shot. On the pitching side, Brayan Bello posted the best WPA figure among all pitchers at +18.8%, a credit to his ability to limit damage through most of his outing, with Lucas Sims adding +11.6% WPA in relief. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 0% for Baltimore, a fitting reflection of how completely Boston controlled the game's final chapters.