Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Washington Nationals 5-1 on August 17, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Philadelphia win moving from 68% before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. Washington managed just two hits on the night, while Philadelphia collected ten, pulling away with the bulk of their damage in the fourth and sixth innings.

The game's decisive sequence began in the bottom of the fourth, where Nick Castellanos delivered a double off MacKenzie Gore that shifted win probability by plus 13.3 points in Philadelphia's favor, the single largest swing of the night. Washington had briefly threatened to take control in the top of that same inning, as Alex Call launched a home run off Cristopher Sanchez for a plus 11.3 point swing that gave the Nationals their only run of the game. However, Bryce Harper grounded into a double play later in the fourth, a minus 9.4 point swing that extinguished any Philadelphia vulnerability. The sixth inning sealed it, with Alec Bohm singling off Gore for plus 11.4 points and J.T. Realmuto following with another single worth plus 10.6 points as Philadelphia scored four times to push the lead to 5-1.

Castellanos finished as the top performer by WPA at plus 14.1, pairing that with a plus 0.9 RE24 mark, while Trea Turner contributed plus 12.0 WPA and Bohm added plus 11.2. On the mound, Cristopher Sanchez was the pitching standout at plus 13.8 WPA despite surrendering the Call home run, keeping Washington's offense otherwise silent across his outing. Gore absorbed the loss, with three of the game's five largest batting-side win-probability swings coming against him.