Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-2 at Busch Stadium on August 17, 2024, handing Los Angeles a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 45 percent home win probability for St. Louis. Andre Pallante led the Cardinals pitching effort with a plus-24.4 percent WPA contribution, working through a Dodgers lineup that included Shohei Ohtani, and the Cardinals built enough of a cushion on the strength of two home runs against Dodgers starter Bobby Miller to make the result feel decisive long before the final out.

The pivotal swing came in the bottom of the third, when Alec Burleson launched a home run off Miller that added 18.1 percent to St. Louis's win probability, the single most consequential play of the game by that measure. The Cardinals extended their lead in the bottom of the fifth when Masyn Winn added another home run off Miller worth a 10.6 percent win-probability shift, responding almost immediately to Ohtani's solo shot in the top half of the inning, which had briefly tightened the gap and accounted for a plus-10.7 percent swing for Los Angeles. A potential Dodgers rally in the seventh was snuffed out when Kevin Kiermaier grounded into a double play off Pallante, a minus-7.8 percent swing that effectively closed the door.

Burleson finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-17.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.9, while Ohtani posted plus-12.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.6 in a losing effort. Winn contributed plus-11.8 percent WPA for St. Louis. Beyond Pallante, JoJo Romero added plus-8.1 percent WPA and Ryan Brasier contributed plus-6.4 percent as the Cardinals bullpen preserved the three-run victory, holding Los Angeles to just four hits on the night.