Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Miami Marlins 7-3 on August 16, 2024, at Citi Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win entering the game at 68% and climbing to a certainty of 100% by the final out. The contest was effectively decided in a single inning, as the Mets erupted for six runs in the bottom of the fourth to erase a two-run Marlins lead and seize full control of the game. New York finished with ten hits and committed no errors, while Miami managed six hits and was charged with one.

The fourth inning carried the full weight of the game's outcome in both directions. Miami entered it with a 2-0 lead after Otto Lopez singled off Sean Manaea to add 9.9% to the Marlins' win probability, and Jonah Bride followed with a double that pushed that swing to an additional 7.0%. Manaea finished the game credited with a WPA of -8.6%, reflecting how thoroughly the Marlins' half of that inning set up a false sense of security. New York answered with a six-run bottom half that dismantled Marlins pitching entirely. Jeff McNeil's home run off Roddery Muñoz was the single most consequential swing of the game, adding 20.7% to the Mets' win probability. Francisco Lindor followed with a triple that contributed another 13.9%, and Brandon Nimmo capped the uprising with a home run off George Soriano worth an additional 12.5%.

McNeil led all position players with a WPA of +20.6% and an RE24 of +1.8, while Nimmo matched him at +1.8 RE24 and contributed +9.1% WPA. Lopez was the most impactful Marlins bat at +8.6% WPA, though his contributions came in the brief window before New York's offense rendered them moot. On the mound, José Buttó paced Mets pitchers with a WPA of +2.6%, and John McMillon added +0.8%.