Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| SD | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 8 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres rolled past the Pittsburgh Pirates 8-2 at Petco Park on August 14, 2024, in a game that was largely decided before the fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving San Diego a 64 percent win probability, and by the time the Padres had finished scoring in the third, that figure had climbed toward certainty, ultimately closing at 100 percent. Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller was the primary victim of San Diego's early onslaught, surrendering damage across the first three frames that effectively ended the competitive portion of the evening.
The pivotal sequence unfolded in the bottom half of the first three innings, with each Padres rally chipping further into Pittsburgh's already slim chances. Jake Cronenworth opened the scoring with a home run off Keller in the first, a swing worth plus-3.5 percent in win probability. Luis Arraez added a double in the second for plus-5.3 percent, and a Jurickson Profar groundout in that same frame contributed an additional plus-4.5 percent as San Diego pushed across another run. The single most impactful play of the game came in the bottom of the third, when Jackson Merrill laced a triple off Keller that swung win probability by plus-7.0 percent, punctuating a four-run inning that put the game firmly out of reach. The Pirates' best opportunity to slow the bleeding came and went when Yasmani Grandal flew out in the top of the second against Martín Pérez, a missed chance that cost Pittsburgh 4.9 percent in win probability.
On the individual side, Merrill finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a plus-10.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.8, his contributions spreading across multiple plate appearances. Profar contributed plus-6.4 percent WPA, while Arraez added plus-6.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.0. On the mound, Martín Pérez was the standout, generating plus-8.2 percent WPA as he kept Pittsburgh's lineup at bay. San Diego finished with 10 hits to Pittsburgh's 8, and the Pirates committed no errors while the Padres committed one, though the defensive miscue had no bearing on the final outcome.