Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies handled the Miami Marlins 9-5 on August 14, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from the start with a 74% pre-game home win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. The outcome was never truly in doubt after the middle innings, though Miami made early noise by scoring three runs in the top of the first against Tyler Phillips, a swing that pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate momentarily against Philadelphia before the Phillies steadily reclaimed control. Philadelphia answered with single runs in the second and third before blowing the game open with four runs in the fourth, capping the inning with the single most decisive play of the night.

That decisive moment came in the bottom of the fourth when Kyle Schwarber drove a home run off Edward Cabrera, a swing worth plus 39.6% in win probability and the largest single-play shift of the game by a wide margin. Cabrera had already absorbed damage earlier, as the Phillies' flyout by Alec Bohm in the first and Brandon Marsh's groundout in the second had each suppressed Philadelphia's win probability by more than 11 percentage points, underscoring how close to a larger early lead the Phillies came. Philadelphia added three more runs in the seventh, with Bohm delivering a single off Declan Cronin worth plus 11.7% in win probability to help seal matters.

Schwarber finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 37.3% with a RE24 of plus 2.8, while Jonah Bride led all players in run-environment impact with a RE24 of plus 3.1 alongside a plus 24.4% WPA contribution. J.T. Realmuto also factored prominently at plus 21.7% WPA and plus 2.8 RE24. On the mound, Kent Emanuel paced Philadelphia's relievers with plus 12.7% WPA, followed by José Ruiz at plus 8.6% and Jeff Hoffman at plus 8.5%, a trio that helped protect the lead through the final frames of a convincing Phillies victory.