Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Chicago Cubs 6-1 on August 14, 2024, at Progressive Field, a result that tracked closely with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 65 percent home win probability and ended with the model's final estimate reaching 100 percent. Cleveland broke open a scoreless game in the fourth inning, doing its critical damage against Cubs starter Jameson Taillon. A Josh Naylor double moved the needle by 14.2 percent in win probability, and an Andrés Giménez single added another 9.5 percent, giving the Guardians a two-run frame that set the tone. Chicago answered briefly in the top of the fourth when Seiya Suzuki laced a triple off Alex Cobb worth 8.1 percent in win probability, making it a 2-1 game and representing the Cubs' best opportunity to stay competitive.

Cleveland would not allow the deficit to remain manageable. In the bottom of the fifth, Will Brennan turned in the single most impactful play of the night, a triple off Taillon that added 14.6 percent in win probability and pushed the Guardians' cushion further out of Chicago's reach. The Guardians added two more runs in the eighth inning, and Patrick Wisdom's double off Tim Herrin in the top half of that frame — worth 6.6 percent in win probability — proved too little too late for a Cubs offense that managed only five hits and no errors on the night.

Among individual performers, Josh Naylor led all batters with a WPA of plus 13.5 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Seiya Suzuki was the lone Cubs bright spot at plus 12.8 percent WPA despite the loss. Will Brennan contributed plus 11.5 percent WPA for Cleveland. On the pitching side, Nick Sandlin led all pitchers with a plus 9.5 percent WPA, and Tim Herrin added plus 4.5 percent, underscoring a Cleveland bullpen that preserved the comfortable margin through the final innings.